Triffin dilemma – World Institute of Diginomics

Although the United States Federal Reserve Note carries with it many advantages for conducting commerce and serving as a world reserve currency, its makeup is not void of imperfections. One of the main shortcomings of the USD is the Triffin Dilemma, a problem which arises when countries must manage both short term domestic and long term international economic objectives. Such a dilemma can lead to trade deficits when a country must also satisfy international demand of its currency. Where the USD falls victim to the Triffin dilemma however, the stateless characteristics of bitcoin may hold promise to solve this international monetary flaw, and provide the backbone for a more interdependent global economy.

The Triffin Dilemma

The economist Robert Triffin first brought to light an international monetary issue involving the nation holding reserve currency status and the impact such a role would have on domestic trade deficits. Such a currency arrangement is usually cited to articulate the problems with the role of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency under the Bretton Woods system. The countries issuing a reserve currency, which foreign nations would wish to hold, must be willing to supply extra money stock to fulfill global demand. Such an arrangement would inevitably lead to operating a trade deficit.

In March of 2009, in the midst of the recent Great Recession, the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan voiced his displeasure of the current makeup of the world reserve currency. Known for his reformist tendencies, Xiaochuan made clear the need for creating “an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations”. Such an international reserve currency, he insisted, could provide stable value, rule-based issuance, and manageable supply necessary for achieving prolonged financial prosperity.

Zhou Xiaochuan’s proposal went largely unheard, as economists were not clear if the IMF’s SDR had the global adoption to overtake the dollar. No solutions have since been proposed. Yet is it possible that such a “disconnected international reserve currency” has been in circulation since 2009? Is it possible that the digital cryptocurrency bitcoin could act as a domestically disconnected money supply and therefore solve the Triffin Dilemma?

John Nash on the Triffin Dilemma

The late mathematician John Nash, whom some believe to be a contributor to the invention of bitcoin, was also an advocate of monetary reform in order to solve the Triffin Dilemma. The desirable goal, in Nash’s mind, was to create an international reserve instrument capable of operating independent of individual nation states while remaining stable in the long run, severing deficiencies found in credit-based money.

Such a money supply would be able to provide a national savings outlet while operating in an autonomous, global manner. With an obsessive focus on cryptography and ideal money, the introduction of bitcoin is covered with the fingerprints of John Nash.

Can Bitcoin Solve the Triffin Dilemma?

The Triffin Dilemma, where countries issuing reserve currencies attempt to simultaneously manage national savings levels with necessary international liquidity, remains to this day, a barrier to economic growth. However, could it be that the introduction of bitcoin brings forth a viable solution to the Triffin Dilemma?

If we assume that the prerequisites for a currency capable of solving the Triffin dilemma were to provide the following, it may be possible to argue that bitcoin is the perfect fit.

stable value
rule-based issuance
manageable supply schedule

In a recent analysis of the price volatility of bitcoin, Eli Dourado estimates that the stability of bitcoin could match that of the Euro within 15 years. Largely a product of an increasing number of active users, the Federal Reserve Board of Washington also estimates that the userbase of bitcoin is doubling roughly every 8 months.

Rule-based issuance is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the bitcoin economy. Here, we have a paradigm shift in the management of monetary policy. Where central banking and human decision making were the catalysts for monetary policy in the 20^th century, that role is now filled by algorithmic time-bound issuance with cryptocurrency. A computerized function on the issuance of money has the potential to provide a sound basis for monetary policy because it is magnitudes more capable of adjusting to changing externalities, such as the bitcoin mining hash power index.

Finally, the supply schedule of bitcoin is relatively inelastic compared to traditional forms of money. We can predict with a high degree of accuracy the supply of bitcoin at any point in time (past & future) and make the necessary adjustments in domestic policy. Peter Šurda, an economist from Vienna, Austria, argues that the inelastic supply function of bitcoin could result in a reduction of business cycles on a domestic level. This inelastic function of bitcoin’s monetary supply could allow both domestic governments and businesses to forecast changes with a higher degree of accuracy, and therefore, could quite possibly mitigate the destructive nature of the business cycle.

Truly, as bitcoin gains new users in the form of individuals learning about cryptocurrency, transacting it, and crossing the psychological chasm of viewing it as a valid form of payment, it inches closer to its rightful place as a global reserve instrument. Such an instrument, would hold tremendous potential to solve the age old Triffin dilemma.

Hal Finney, one of the early developers of the bitcoin protocol, is often touted as one of the creators of the technology due to the optimizations to elliptic curve cryptography he made alongside Satoshi Nakamoto in the earliest days of its existence. As the first transaction recipient of bitcoin, Finney was integral to bitcoin’s operational takeoff, and can justly be described as one of its most crucial creators. In much the same way that Hal Finney is credited with being a core contributor to the implementation of bitcoin, could John Nash, someone who had been at the forefront of mathematical and economic thought into the prospect of ‘ideal money‘, be justly attributed credit for the formation of the electronic cash system of cryptocurrency?

The special commodity or medium that we call money has a long and interesting history. And since we are so dependent on our use of it and so much controlled and motivated by the wish to have more of it or not to lose what we have we may become irrational in thinking about it and fail to be able to reason about it like a bout of technology, such as a radio, to be used more or less efficiently.

– John Nash

Ideal Money

Nash described the concept of ideal money as having the function of a standard of measurement and, thus, it should become comparable to the watt, the hour or a degree of temperature.

He asserted an ideal form of money should provide a viable solution to the Triffin Dilemma – it should serve both short-term domestic and international long-term objectives where central banking money has utterly failed (the average lifespan of a fiat currency is 27 years).

Bitcoin Money Supply — The inflation rate of bitcoin asymptotically approaches zero as we inch closer to the currency limit of 21 million units.

Disinflationary Money Supply

Asymptotically ideal money focuses on the fluctuations and long-term perceived value of money, where the ideal inflation rate is as close to zero without being negative (deflation). Currently this accurately describes the economic nature of bitcoin, as it is a disinflationary money supply by design – that is, it is decreasing in its inflationary nature by halving the block reward at predetermined intervals. The inflation rate of bitcoin asymptotically approaches zero as we inch closer to the currency limit of 21 million units.

Nash described this ideal of money as something which could solve the Triffin Dilemma and provide a global savings outlet for people who would otherwise be subject to ‘bad money’, or money expected to lose value over time under conditions of inflation.

Nash described a nonpolitical value standard for comparisons of value, asserting that an industrial consumption price index could be “appropriately readjusted depending on how patterns of international trade would actually evolve”. Moreover, Nash described how actors that were in control of this standard could corrupt this continuity, yet the probability of damages through corruption would be as small as politicians who alter the measurements of meters and kilometers.

Bitcoin Consumption Index

Within the bitcoin network, the mining difficulty index, which can be viewed as a type of consumption index, is intelligently adjusted based on a regulatory algorithm which assigns the difficulty at a rate where new blocks are mined every 10 minutes, on average. Further, authorities of the bitcoin network (51% mining pools) could corrupt the standard of non-double spending, yet doing so would be an attempt to alter the calculation of transactions while not honoring their own incentive to remain an honest mining participant. The bitcoin whitepaper itself describes how such an authority would choose to ensure the integrity of this transaction standard as doing otherwise would devalue their own authority position in the mining network.

The nonpolitical industrial consumption price index Nash described in his 2002 paper is represented by the bitcoin network’s intelligent design towards regulating mining consumption power and readjusting the difficulty and block rewards accordingly.

Given that the bitcoin network is inherently regulated by an algorithm which adjusts the consumption index to an average of 10 minutes, could it be argued that the standard of measurement is time itself?

Is Bitcoin Nash’s Ideal Money?

Nash’s work on ideal money is represented in the most fundamental aspects of bitcoin’s economic nature. His insights into a form of money which can be used as a true measuring tool and one which solves the Triffin Dilemma by serving as a viable domestic and international money supply, have made bitcoin into what it is today – a practical opportunity to achieve an international standard of ideal money.

Is bitcoin the closest thing we have thus far seen to the concept of ideal money? John Nash’s work into the field did indeed make its way into the invention of bitcoin. Although he was very likely never behind the guise of Satoshi Nakamoto, his work lives on in the monetary policies built into the bitcoin protocol.