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Bitcoin Cypherpunk

Bitcoin Threatens the Income Tax

As the age of cryptocurrency comes into full force, it will facilitate a subversively viable taxation avoidance strategy for many of the technically savvy users of peer-to-peer payment systems. In doing so, cryptocurrency use will act to erode the tax revenue base of national jurisdictions, and ultimately, reposition taxation as a voluntary, pay-for-performance function. In this post, I cover some of the benefits such a strategy will have for cryptocurrency investors, why our notion of taxation is ripe for disruption, and why cryptocurrency taxation is infact enabled by default.

The Siren Song of Tax Havens

Although investors have been lured by the siren song of tax havens for as long as governments have existed, none have existed with the legal and architectural characteristics found in cryptocurrency. By operating in a peer-to-peer nature, it is reasonable to forecast the impracticality of systemic taxation on these types of financial assets from national jurisdictions.

Although bitcoin operates behind a veil of cybersecrey, this pseudo-anonymity will not allow the subversion of national taxation. Rather, the principle reason that bitcoin will create a new form of tax haven, is that the State acts as an unnecessary third party in the conduct of payment within this system. From the perspective of bitcoin, recognizing the State as a legitimate entity is both cumbersome and unnecessary. What need is there for the State when business is conducted in a voluntary, peer-to-peer manner on a network which no one owns?

Running The Numbers on Cryptocurrency Taxation

It has been said that compounding interest is one of the most powerful forces in the universe. When we apply the black magic of compounding returns to the profit-maximizing actions of consumers, we see quite clearly why every user aware of the benefits of using cryptocurrency, even if only for the tax-savings, will opt to do so over traditional fiat money. The allure of avoiding the clutches of national taxation is strong enough that any rational consumer will make cryptocurrency a portion of their financial portfolio given they have the sufficient technical understanding.

“Each $5,000 of annual tax payments made over a 40-year period reduces your net worth by $2.2 million assuming a 10% annual return on your investments,” reports James Dale Davidson in The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age, “For high income earners in predatory tax regimes (such as the United States), you can expect to lose more of your money through cumulative taxation than you will ever earn.”

James Dale Davidson, co-editor of Strategic Investment

Never before has there existed a tool that can preserve economic and informational assets with such a high degree of security combined with a near-zero marginal cost to the user. This revolutionary capability of the bitcoin network does, and will continue to provide, a subversively lucrative tax haven in direct correlation with its acceptance on a worldwide basis.

Government Response to Cryptocurrency Taxation

Many government agencies have already cued in to the tax avoidance potential of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. However, it would seem that they misjudge this emerging threat looming over their precious tax coffers. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in the United States (FINCEN) for example, has already issued guidance on cryptocurrency taxation, yet makes a false distinction between real currency and virtual currency. FINCEN states that “In contrast to real currency, “virtual” currency is a medium of exchange that operates like a currency in some environments, but does not have all the attributes of real currency,” and later “virtual currency does not have legal tender status in any jurisdiction.”

What these agencies fail to realize, is that cryptocurrency is not virtual in any sense of the word. Indeed it is as real, and perhaps even more real, than traditional fleeting fiat currencies. Currency is an abstract concept from the outset. If such currency is capable of purchasing real-world goods and services, then it is indeed real. Only the most careless investors would mistakenly believe money “does not have legal tender status in any jurisdiction” due to its digital makeup. Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies as a whole, are creating a new jurisdiction entirely.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency offer a near perfect alternative to traditional tax havens which are being tightly controlled by new laws associated with the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). In his report Are Cryptocurrencies Super Tax Havens?, Omri Marian makes clear the pressure for financial institutions who interact with the US banking system to hand over account holder information, and for a collective crackdown on offshore tax havens with the enactment of FATCA in 2010. Such a legislative act, it would seem, is a boom for bitcoin’s antifragile position in the marketplace.

Tax policymakers seem to be operating under the faulty assumption that cryptocurrency-based economies are limited by the size of virtual economies. The only virtual aspect of cryptocurrencies, however, is their form. Their operation happens within real economies, and as such their growth potential is, at least theoretically, infinite. Such potential, together with recent developments in cryptocurrencies markets, should alert policy-makers to the urgency of the emerging problem.

– Omri Marian, Are Cryptocurrencies ‘Super’ Tax Havens?

Current bitcoin payment processors such as BitPay have recently revealed that government agencies are watching cryptocurrency transactions through the bottlenecks and exchanges where it can be tracked and traced with a high degree of transparency. It should not come to anyone’s surprise that governments are watching cryptocurrency nor that companies are complying with their laws, but understanding why national governments require users of an emerging digital economy to cut them a slice of the pie while they contribute nothing to it’s operation, and in many cases, hinder the adoption of this technology, remains a callus mystery.

Governments initially attempting to control cryptocurrency taxation through the businesses and bottlenecks which it can be monitored through will have as much success as they have limiting peer-to-peer file sharing.

Old laws seldom resist the trends of technology. The attempt of government agencies to levy taxation on cryptocurrency transactions directly is as futile as attempting to regulate the direction of the wind. No matter the tool of choice, state actors will be overrun by continuously expanding waves of cryptocurrency adoption.

Cryptocurrency Is Taxed By Default

What would you say if you were told cryptocurrency taxation occurs on every transaction by default? In the realm of digital currency, the transaction fee which the user decides to (or decides not to) attach to each payment represents the taxation. This user can decide to attach a large fee or no fee at all. In doing so, the miners of the network will choose preference for the transactions with a larger fee attached. Thus is the nature of the mining fee incentive. Miners work to confirm these payments sooner than those with smaller fees.

This transaction queue represents a voluntary, pay-for-performance taxation structure where the performance derived from the system is correlated with the willingness to pay of the user.

Algorithmic Regulation

Cryptocurrencies have an inherent regulation, the peer-to-peer architecture they are built upon. Truly, bitcoin is code as law.

Cryptocurrencies have regulation built into the very nature of their existence, just not through our conventional ideas of human intervention. Because of the technological nature of cryptocurrency taxation, judicial regulations bestowed upon these types of systems will always be, to a large degree, futile.

Bitcoin has established it’s own set of rules through the source code which it is built upon. Forcing legal frameworks on this type of 21st century innovation will only cause unnecessary friction during its adoption phase.

The only choice of regulation we have in terms of cryptocurrency taxation is not to try and fit it inside some existing doctrine, but to abide by their laws of voluntary exchange and information freedom. We must be the ones to conform to the regulation, not vice versa.

Bitcoin is a system which will only be governed effectively through digital law, an approach which functions solely through the medium of mathematical technology. It will not bend to the whim of those who still hold conventional forms of law-making as relevant today.

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

– Richard Feynman

When we come to understand the systemic subversion to judicial intervention, it becomes quite clear that cryptocurrency taxation will remain a voluntary, pay-for-performance function. No longer will taxation be enforced through coercion, but become a voluntary act towards increased system performance.

Mass taxation on bitcoin is infeasible through judiciary law. You, or anyone motivated to maximize their net worth, will find a subversive tax haven in the realm of cryptocurrency.

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Cypherpunk Ethereum

How The Ethereum Virtual Machine Could Run The World

Since the beginning of 2016, anyone with a pulse on the digital currency industry has watched with bated breath the smart contracting platform Ethereum rise to meteoric highs. As a relatively new development utilizing bitcoin technology, Ethereum aims to implement a globally decentralized, digital computer for executing peer-to-peer contracts. Such an innovation could eliminate censorship, fraud, and the role of the third party in online collaboration.

Unlocking The Ethereum Virtual Machine

By taking the cryptographic payment structure of bitcoin and adding a Turing complete scripting language, Ethereum is attempting to create the most viable tool for executing smart contracts using blockchain technology. The term Turing complete here means a system capable of performing any logical step of the computational function. A technology in wide use today which employs Turing completeness is JavaScript, the programming language which powers the worldwide web.

Smart contract technology would describe a computer protocol which obviates the need for a contractual clause and instead is self-executing and self-enforcing.

What differentiates Ethereum from bitcoin is that it doesn’t stand first to be a payment system, but rather a computing platform. The cryptocurrency of Ethereum, ether, acts as a sort of fuel to power the engine of this computing platform. Ether is consumed by miners for accessing resources of the network. The more ether a user holds, the more “gas” they can pump into the computational engine of the Ethereum virtual machine.

This combination of cryptographic architecture and Turing completeness, could enable entirely new industries to spawn, where traditional business models occupying the role of middleman, will increasingly feel the pressure to innovate or die.

Ethereum is a world computer you can’t shut down and you can’t turn off.

Autonomous Corporations

One of the defining features of the 21st century corporation is populating the role of the employee with machines rather than humans. Bitcoin is one of the first models of such a corporation. The miners of the bitcoin network can be seen as employees rather than as humans were in the traditional corporate model.

Ethereum takes this development one step further.

Interestingly, the role of the customer (which is currently populated by humans) stands to be dominated by machine function as smart contracting systems enable end-to-end payments without requiring a human initiator. What Ethereum will help facilitate is an economy of interconnected devices where machines can transmit money and data in a manner which dwarfs the efficiency of human input. Businesses which overlook this trend, will pay dearly due to new supply channels which disintermediate the old world’s necessary third parties.

Ethereum today is where bitcoin was in 2010 – raw infrastructure, lack of developers, and plenty of skeptics. Competitors, such as Rootstock, add legitimacy to the use case Ethereum is attempting to bring to market.

From trustless crowdsales to democratic organizations, smart contracting platforms could unlock a new frontier in internet enabled innovation.

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Bitcoin Cypherpunk Forecasting

Africa May Leapfrog Traditional Banking

If bitcoin acceptance reaches a critical mass where necessities of food, shelter, and clothing can be bought with it, it could reach a tipping point where it challenges the dominance of national currencies in many developing countries.

In this scenario, many areas of the world may leapfrog banking infrastructure and traditional money wire transfers. Most notably, the financial landscape in developing economies such as Africa is well positioned to leapfrog traditional banking and move directly to a bitcoin-enabled financial paradigm.

Bitcoin Leapfrogging Banks

Leapfrogging is described as a theory of economic development which skips inferior or obsolete technologies in order to move directly to advanced ones. Take, for example, phone coverage in African countries. Landline grids for household use were never fully developed because by the time Africa came into market view, mobile phones were the new paradigm of telecommunications. The entire infrastructure for household landlines was leapfrogged by cellular technology.

Similar to cellular technology, bitcoin could empower Africa to leapfrog the banking infrastructure of western countries and go directly to a new financial paradigm. The preeminent requirement on behalf of African citizens is a mobile device with internet connectivity. Many citizens of Africa are already well-versed in making mobile payments with cellular devices.

Mobile Payments

The potential to provide financial services worldwide is echoed by the adoption of mobile payment technologies such as M-Pesa, a mobile-phone based money transfer and microfinancing service for Safaricom and Vodacom. M-Pesa is estimated to have a near 70% market share in Kenya and is becoming more accepted in surrounding countries.

According to Mobile Payments Today, in 2002, only 3% of people on the entire continent of Africa had mobile phones. That number exploded to 48% by 2010. In 2014, 70% of the continent’s population had a mobile phone as the market continues to adopt cellular devices.

Banking the Unbanked

World Unbanked Population
World Unbanked Population (ALBERTO CHAIA, 2010)

Worldwide, approximately 2.5 billion people lack a formal account at a financial institution. Access to affordable financial services is linked to overcoming poverty, reducing income disparities, and increasing economic growth.

If one third of adults lack access to formal banking systems, a bank account stored in cyberspace may prove to be a catalyst of growth for developing markets.

Bitcoin will benefit Africa more than any other region in the world due to the massive business opportunity which presents itself as an unbanked, yet mobile-friendly market. Such a leapfrogging effect would serve to pull struggling African economies out of stagnation and onto the global stage in a very big way.

The combination of ubiquitous internet-connected mobile devices and digital currency presents a tremendous opportunity to radically expand access to financial services on a worldwide basis.

– Jeremy Allaire, Circle Internet Financial, 2013 US hearing on digital currencies

Currency Mismanagement

Beyond just mobile payments and access to banking infrastructure, several African economies are the product of mismanaged currency policy. Zimbabwe’s legacy of collapsed currency, with inflation reaching 231,000,000% in 2008, is a prime example of such disastrous government intervention. The hyperinflation that crippled Zimbabwe was largely caused by currency being too liberally printed, a swollen stock of money chasing a diminished supply of goods.

Advantage Africa

Bitcoin may not be the definitive answer for the masses that remain unbanked, but it is certainly a step towards a brighter future.

Governments in Africa will have diminished options for instituting thoughtless policies once bitcoin is adopted by the populous. The hotspots for adoption will be most apparent in geographies which have a very unreliable currency and lack mature financial infrastructure. Out of all the regions on Earth, African countries stand to benefit the most from financial technology such as bitcoin.

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Bitcoin Cybereconomy

Bitcoin Introduces Digital Scarcity

Scarcity, the idea that some one thing is finite, has been thus far not applicable to the digital realm. Until the arrival of bitcoin, nearly anything that was of digital nature could be duplicated without recourse. Due to the ease of reproducing computer code, the problem of double-spending was the unsolved mystery of viable digital money. However, the innovation of the blockchain ledger has added a potent economic function to the equation of online exchange: digital scarcity.

The Introduction of Digital Scarcity

Beyond the realm of money supply, bitcoin has enabled everything from informational products, media, art, and more to be delivered in a manner where ownership is mathematically verified. Because digital ownership can now be determined, it proliferates a scarce quantity of goods. Digital scarcity marks the emergence of a new cohort of potential business models.

“Bitcoin is a remarkable cryptographic achievement and the ability to create something that is not duplicable in the digital world has enormous value.”

– Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google

The attribute of scarcity in bitcoin is not necessarily derived from the actual file information itself, but the method in which the information is stored. The difficulty in reworking the cryptographic proof-of-work which has hashed and timestamped the property with the creator’s digital signature represents the construct of scarcity. The difficulty of reworking this cryptographic chain then, is directly correlated with the difficulty of duplication (double-spending), as more hash power would be required to retroactively alter the information’s assigned ownership. Information hashed at the very beginning of the blockchain for example (such as the genesis block), could be viewed as nearly unforgeable in comparison to information hashed in the last 10 minute block because it would take magnitudes more computational power to rework that section of the chain.

The Digital Economy’s Missing Layer

Scarcity is a fundamental layer of any economic system. Without scarcity, there be no need for money. In a perfectly abundant world, resources would be limitless and money would serve no need because exchange would be entirely unnecessary.

Bitcoin introducing digital scarcity represents a milestone in the development of a totally digital economy, one which has the capacity to stand independent of national economies. In the years ahead, it is likely we will see new business models arise from the potent characteristic of digital scarcity.

Categories
Bitcoin Cypherpunk

‘t Let Anyone Tell You the Identity of Satoshi Nakamoto Does Not Matter

The world’s first trillionaire by USD valuation could quite possibly be the creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. If bitcoin continues to climb the ladder of exponential price appreciation, than once Nakamoto decides to move their money and make transactions with it, there will be a seismic shift in the perceived supply of money.

In the numerous attempts to lift the veil of bitcoin’s mysterious inventor, people have gotten hurt. Homes have been raided. Journalists have been ostracized. Following these chaotic rumours however, seems to be a cultish mantra echoing from the chambers of bitcoin’s disillusioned – that “the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter.”

This is not only terribly untrue, but dangerous. Naive to the nature of the emerging bitcoin digital economy, the disillusioned will claim that the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter because the software is open source. Anyone can read the source code of bitcoin. Anyone can identify vulnerability in the protocol’s architecture. Anyone can fork it and create their own implementation. This is well known of bitcoin, and it is not the reason its creator’s identity still holds crucial importance.

The 21st Million

The Nakamoto wallets comprise roughly 5.5% of the total bitcoin which will ever be in circulation and about 9.3% which are available today. If there is one party controlling five percent of all currency that will ever be created in an economy, this poses a huge risk to the integrity of decentralization. One in ten bitcoin today lies dormant, but alive. Truly, the mammoth wallets owned by Satoshi Nakamoto are one of the biggest threats to price stability and the principle of decentralization of bitcoin.

In a world where we rage about the centralization of our current economic circumstances, it is plain to see that bitcoin may not be as different as it initially seems.

Satoshi Nakamoto Wallets

Almost all are owned by a single entity, and that entity began mining right from block 1 with the same performance as the genesis block. It can be identified by constant slope segments that occasionally restart. Also this entity is the only entity that has shown complete trust in bitcoin since it hasn’t spent any coins (as last as the eye can see). I estimate at eyesight that Satoshi fortune is around 1M Bitcoin. – Sergio Demian Lerner

World’s First Trillionaire

At this point, not much can be done about the large volume of bitcoin that lie hidden in Nakamoto’s wallets. We don’t know which addresses they belong to and we only have estimates of the amount they hold. What we do know is that Nakamoto has multiple wallets rather than one, and that they have since discontinued their mining activities.

Will the Nakamoto funds ever move? Or have they already been purposefully destroyed? If Nakamoto were to take such a route, it might cause a bullish run on the rest of the bitcoin in circulation because of increased scarcity.

Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone. – Satoshi Nakamoto

If bitcoin should continue to challenge the status quo, it is indeed worthwhile to ask the types of questions which would uncover the identity of a party which controls the largest stake in an emerging economy. Satoshi has no obligation to reveal their identity, yet if bitcoin should become worth 10 or 100 times its current value, questions about their identity may haunt those who are deeply invested in this emerging digital economy, both in terms of financial and ideological investment.

Money has a profound way of influencing people. Business leaders recognize the opportunity to shake up the world that comes with owning massive capital. When it comes down to it, the effect bitcoin has on the world may correlate sharply with the causes Nakamoto dedicates their purchasing power to, if they do eventually move their money. Nakamoto can either use that ability to power the common good, or for less noble reasons. The causes this money is dedicated to will forever forge the legacy of the great anonymous wizard Satoshi Nakamoto.

Regardless, don’t let anyone tell you the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter.

Categories
Bitcoin Cypherpunk

Don’t Let Anyone Tell You the Identity of Satoshi Nakamoto Does Not Matter

The world’s first trillionaire by USD valuation could quite possibly be the creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. If bitcoin continues to climb the ladder of exponential price appreciation, than once Nakamoto decides to move their money and make transactions with it, there will be a seismic shift in the perceived supply of money.

In the numerous attempts to lift the veil of bitcoin’s mysterious inventor, people have gotten hurt. Homes have been raided. Journalists have been ostracized. Following these chaotic rumours however, seems to be a cultish mantra echoing from the chambers of bitcoin’s disillusioned – that “the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter.”

This is not only terribly untrue, but dangerous. Naive to the nature of the emerging bitcoin digital economy, the disillusioned will claim that the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter because the software is open source. Anyone can read the source code of bitcoin. Anyone can identify vulnerability in the protocol’s architecture. Anyone can fork it and create their own implementation. This is well known of bitcoin, and it is not the reason its creator’s identity still holds crucial importance.

The 21st Million

The Nakamoto wallets comprise roughly 5.5% of the total bitcoin which will ever be in circulation and about 9.3% which are available today. If there is one party controlling five percent of all currency that will ever be created in an economy, this poses a huge risk to the integrity of decentralization. One in ten bitcoin today lies dormant, but alive. Truly, the mammoth wallets owned by Satoshi Nakamoto are one of the biggest threats to price stability and the principle of decentralization of bitcoin.

In a world where we rage about the centralization of our current economic circumstances, it is plain to see that bitcoin may not be as different as it initially seems.

Satoshi Nakamoto Wallets

Almost all are owned by a single entity, and that entity began mining right from block 1 with the same performance as the genesis block. It can be identified by constant slope segments that occasionally restart. Also this entity is the only entity that has shown complete trust in bitcoin since it hasn’t spent any coins (as last as the eye can see). I estimate at eyesight that Satoshi fortune is around 1M Bitcoin. – Sergio Demian Lerner

World’s First Trillionaire

At this point, not much can be done about the large volume of bitcoin that lie hidden in Nakamoto’s wallets. We don’t know which addresses they belong to and we only have estimates of the amount they hold. What we do know is that Nakamoto has multiple wallets rather than one, and that they have since discontinued their mining activities.

Will the Nakamoto funds ever move? Or have they already been purposefully destroyed? If Nakamoto were to take such a route, it might cause a bullish run on the rest of the bitcoin in circulation because of increased scarcity.

Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone. – Satoshi Nakamoto

If bitcoin should continue to challenge the status quo, it is indeed worthwhile to ask the types of questions which would uncover the identity of a party which controls the largest stake in an emerging economy. Satoshi has no obligation to reveal their identity, yet if bitcoin should become worth 10 or 100 times its current value, questions about their identity may haunt those who are deeply invested in this emerging digital economy, both in terms of financial and ideological investment.

Money has a profound way of influencing people. Business leaders recognize the opportunity to shake up the world that comes with owning massive capital. When it comes down to it, the effect bitcoin has on the world may correlate sharply with the causes Nakamoto dedicates their purchasing power to, if they do eventually move their money. Nakamoto can either use that ability to power the common good, or for less noble reasons. The causes this money is dedicated to will forever forge the legacy of the great anonymous wizard Satoshi Nakamoto.

Regardless, don’t let anyone tell you the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto does not matter.

Categories
Bitcoin Forecasting

Bitcoin May Solve the Triffin Dilemma

Although the United States Federal Reserve Note carries with it many advantages for conducting commerce and serving as a world reserve currency, its makeup is not void of imperfections. One of the main shortcomings of the USD is the Triffin Dilemma, a problem which arises when countries must manage both short term domestic and long term international economic objectives. Such a dilemma can lead to trade deficits when a country must also satisfy international demand of its currency. Where the USD falls victim to the Triffin dilemma however, the stateless characteristics of bitcoin may hold promise to solve this international monetary flaw, and provide the backbone for a more interdependent global economy.

The Triffin Dilemma

Reserve Currency Status
Reserve currency status by country dating back to the 1400’s

The economist Robert Triffin first brought to light an international monetary issue involving the nation holding reserve currency status and the impact such a role would have on domestic trade deficits. Such a currency arrangement is usually cited to articulate the problems with the role of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency under the Bretton Woods system. The countries issuing a reserve currency, which foreign nations would wish to hold, must be willing to supply extra money stock to fulfill global demand. Such an arrangement would inevitably lead to operating a trade deficit.

In March of 2009, in the midst of the recent Great Recession, the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan voiced his displeasure of the current makeup of the world reserve currency. Known for his reformist tendencies, Xiaochuan made clear the need for creating “an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations”. Such an international reserve currency, he insisted, could provide stable value, rule-based issuance, and manageable supply necessary for achieving prolonged financial prosperity.

Zhou Xiaochuan’s proposal went largely unheard, as economists were not clear if the IMF’s SDR had the global adoption to overtake the dollar. No solutions have since been proposed. Yet is it possible that such a “disconnected international reserve currency” has been in circulation since 2009? Is it possible that the digital cryptocurrency bitcoin could act as a domestically disconnected money supply and therefore solve the Triffin Dilemma?

John Nash on the Triffin Dilemma

John Nash
John Forbes Nash, who was said to have made a breakthrough on Einstein’s formulas just days before his untimely death.
Nash wanted to alter the measure of the curvature of space and time, or how the dimensions of space and time are altered by the presence of energy.

The late mathematician John Nash, whom some believe to be a contributor to the invention of bitcoin, was also an advocate of monetary reform in order to solve the Triffin Dilemma. The desirable goal, in Nash’s mind, was to create an international reserve instrument capable of operating independent of individual nation states while remaining stable in the long run, severing deficiencies found in credit-based money.

Such a money supply would be able to provide a national savings outlet while operating in an autonomous, global manner. With an obsessive focus on cryptography and ideal money, the introduction of bitcoin is covered with the fingerprints of John Nash.

Can Bitcoin Solve the Triffin Dilemma?

The Triffin Dilemma, where countries issuing reserve currencies attempt to simultaneously manage national savings levels with necessary international liquidity, remains to this day, a barrier to economic growth. However, could it be that the introduction of bitcoin brings forth a viable solution to the Triffin Dilemma?

If we assume that the prerequisites for a currency capable of solving the Triffin dilemma were to provide the following, it may be possible to argue that bitcoin is the perfect fit.

  1. stable value
  2. rule-based issuance
  3. manageable supply schedule

In a recent analysis of the price volatility of bitcoin, Eli Dourado estimates that the stability of bitcoin could match that of the Euro within 15 years. Largely a product of an increasing number of active users, the Federal Reserve Board of Washington also estimates that the userbase of bitcoin is doubling roughly every 8 months.

Rule-based issuance is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the bitcoin economy. Here, we have a paradigm shift in the management of monetary policy. Where central banking and human decision making were the catalysts for monetary policy in the 20th century, that role is now filled by algorithmic time-bound issuance with cryptocurrency. A computerized function on the issuance of money has the potential to provide a sound basis for monetary policy because it is magnitudes more capable of adjusting to changing externalities, such as the bitcoin mining hash power index.

Finally, the supply schedule of bitcoin is relatively inelastic compared to traditional forms of money. We can predict with a high degree of accuracy the supply of bitcoin at any point in time (past & future) and make the necessary adjustments in domestic policy. Peter Šurda, an economist from Vienna, Austria, argues that the inelastic supply function of bitcoin could result in a reduction of business cycles on a domestic level. This inelastic function of bitcoin’s monetary supply could allow both domestic governments and businesses to forecast changes with a higher degree of accuracy, and therefore, could quite possibly mitigate the destructive nature of the business cycle.

Truly, as bitcoin gains new users in the form of individuals learning about cryptocurrency, transacting it, and crossing the psychological chasm of viewing it as a valid form of payment, it inches closer to its rightful place as a global reserve instrument. Such an instrument, would hold tremendous potential to solve the age old Triffin dilemma.