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Cybereconomy

Is Total Cashlessness Inevitable?

Debates abound as global trends move forward

“All that is necessary is to wait out a short term in the cycle of human history and a cashless society will inevitably befall us because this is a development that is automatic and inevitable.”

– Robert Hendrickson, (book) THE CASHLESS SOCIETY (1972)

The inevitability of a “world without money” has been an ongoing debate since the subject first entered the social scene in the early ‘70s. I know. I’ve been tracking the topic since that time. It’s been one of the most amazing journeys through the evolution of our times as one could imagine. Having spent my entire adult life in both retail and reporting, I have seen the retail industry go from old mechanical cash registers to card swiping to smart phone scanning … and, from there, we enter the full ubiquitous age of what I like to call The Diginomic Era! Everything goes fully digital … especially our money.

According to The Mobile Economy 2018 Report produced by GSMA Intelligence in Europe, “2017 was a milestone year for the mobile industry: the number of people connected to mobile services surpassed 5 billion globally, with 3.7 billion in developing markets. As such, two out of three people in the world had a mobile subscription at the end of 2017. Looking out to 2025, the mobile industry will reach new major milestones across key indicators – unique subscribers, internet users and 4G/5G connections.”

In the meantime, by 2025, the report also predicts “the more significant growth opportunity will lie in mobile internet … reaching a milestone of 5 billion mobile internet users.”

As the world goes increasingly and irreversibly mobile, the obvious white elephant in the room is the fate of fiat currency. Will the world see the eventual (if not inevitable) demise and disappearance of hard, tangible currency? Will the “money” in your pocket finally go away and be replaced with computer digits that will be called “legal tender”?

Katina Stefanova, writing for FORBES in its April 9, 2018 edition, noted: “Today, an innovative generation that cares very little about what the established titans of our industry think constitutes ‘currency’ have completely redefined how currency is created, exchanged and stored.”

In her article, “Digital Currency Economy: What is the Future of Your Bitcoins?” she goes further to say, “It seems as though the only thing one needs for a currency to exist is buyers and sellers who want to transfer value between each other. The subculture gains momentum taking the establishment by surprise; who thought that Bitcoin would be worth over $10,000?”

As you read across the Internet on the subject The Future of Money, you come across a plethora of philosophical discussions and theorems, but they all seem to have this common thread, as relayed in an article on Quora (Oct. 18, 2010): “Money is likely to become much more decentralized and even more ‘virtual’ … money is likely to become increasingly invisible. Rather than handing someone cash, you’ll give them your cell phone number and they’ll request payment by typing that number into an online form on their cell phone. You’ll get an SMS message from the payment processor and reply to confirm. Alternatively, you might give them your email address and respond via email. Another possibility is that you’ll ‘bump’ your phones together, and that will initiate the exchange in the cloud.”

Going cashless is inevitable if for no other reason than the fact that advancing technology will see to it. The new adult generations of the Millennials and beyond already have it in their cultural DNA.

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Cybereconomy

The Growing e-Dollar Culture

Any way you slice it, the world at-large is no longer analog, but increasingly digital. We are now at parity point between science fiction and evolving pervasive technology. Welcome to The Diginomic Era!

“Only one in ten US dollars in circulation today is a physical note — the kind you can hold in your hand or put in your wallet. The other nine are virtual.” – McKinsey & Co., “The Global Grid

Joel Kurtzman, former Harvard Business Review executive editor, calls it “megabyte money” in his 1993 book, The Death of Money. Don Tapscott referred to it as “The Digital Economy” in his 1996 book by the same name … and then, in 2006, he went further to call it Wikinomics. In 1997, professor and author T. G. Lewis called it “The Friction-Free Economy”.

In 1998, yours truly took it one step further in coining the word “Diginomics” to denote the trend in the future for digital economics. If left uninterrupted by unexpected, unforeseen or unplanned forces, the evolution toward cashlessness is inevitable. Robert Hendrickson, in his 1972 book entitled “The Cashless Society”, agreed with this assessment when he noted: “All that is necessary is to wait out a short term in the cycle of human history and a cashless society will inevitably befall us because this is a development that is automatic and inevitable.”

Technological progress advances with very few hindrances to block its destiny, whether it be for good or for evil. In this particular instance involving the end of tangible currency in exchange for its intangible counterpart, the die is cast and the ultimate future is now at-hand.

In a 171-page white paper report in 2002 entitled “The Future of Money”, the UN’s Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) made a bold statement on the future of money by saying: “To put it in succinct and current terms, money’s destiny is to become digital.”

“When looking to the future, the question (is on) the rate at which the last vestiges of physical money will disappear and, in the minds of some, if it is really destined to vanish.”

Visa’s Chief Executive Al Kelly, in speaking at his company’s Investor Day meeting in June 2017, was quoted in the July 7 edition of Marketwatch as saying: “We’re focused on putting cash out of business.”

“As money becomes completely digitized, infinitely transferable, and friction-free, it will again revolutionize how we think about our economy.” – Daniel Roth, WIRED, February 22, 2010, “The Future of Money: It’s Flexible, Frictionless and (Almost) Free

“Killing currency wouldn’t be a trauma; it’d be euthanasia. We have the technology to move to a more efficient, convenient, freely flowing medium of exchange. E-money is no longer just a matter of geeks playing games.” – David Wolman, contributing editor, WIRED,
May 22, 2009, “Time to Cash Out: Why Paper Money Hurts the Economy

Headlines appearing in 2016 give us a view as to what is coming, courtesy of The American Thinker, in an article entitled “Here Comes the ‘Cashless Society”:

  • Bring On the Cashless Future – Bloomberg
  • China buyers go virtually cashless  – The Star
  • Norway’s Biggest Bank Calls For Country To Stop Using Cash – Int’l Business Times
  • Cashless future underway as Canadian consumers have more credit, debit and app options than ever – CBC
  • In Sweden, a Cash-Free Future Nears – NY Times
  • Germany proposes new cash ban and capital controls as Europe rushes towards NIRP* – Examiner
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Bitcoin Cybereconomy

Why The Internet Of Things Will Be Built On Bitcoin

There are as many different private key combinations as there are physical atoms in the known universe.

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Bitcoin Cybereconomy

Bitcoin Introduces Digital Scarcity

Scarcity, the idea that some one thing is finite, has been thus far not applicable to the digital realm. Until the arrival of bitcoin, nearly anything that was of digital nature could be duplicated without recourse. Due to the ease of reproducing computer code, the problem of double-spending was the unsolved mystery of viable digital money. However, the innovation of the blockchain ledger has added a potent economic function to the equation of online exchange: digital scarcity.

The Introduction of Digital Scarcity

Beyond the realm of money supply, bitcoin has enabled everything from informational products, media, art, and more to be delivered in a manner where ownership is mathematically verified. Because digital ownership can now be determined, it proliferates a scarce quantity of goods. Digital scarcity marks the emergence of a new cohort of potential business models.

“Bitcoin is a remarkable cryptographic achievement and the ability to create something that is not duplicable in the digital world has enormous value.”

– Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google

The attribute of scarcity in bitcoin is not necessarily derived from the actual file information itself, but the method in which the information is stored. The difficulty in reworking the cryptographic proof-of-work which has hashed and timestamped the property with the creator’s digital signature represents the construct of scarcity. The difficulty of reworking this cryptographic chain then, is directly correlated with the difficulty of duplication (double-spending), as more hash power would be required to retroactively alter the information’s assigned ownership. Information hashed at the very beginning of the blockchain for example (such as the genesis block), could be viewed as nearly unforgeable in comparison to information hashed in the last 10 minute block because it would take magnitudes more computational power to rework that section of the chain.

The Digital Economy’s Missing Layer

Scarcity is a fundamental layer of any economic system. Without scarcity, there be no need for money. In a perfectly abundant world, resources would be limitless and money would serve no need because exchange would be entirely unnecessary.

Bitcoin introducing digital scarcity represents a milestone in the development of a totally digital economy, one which has the capacity to stand independent of national economies. In the years ahead, it is likely we will see new business models arise from the potent characteristic of digital scarcity.

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Bitcoin Cybereconomy

Did John Nash Help Invent Bitcoin?

Hal Finney, one of the early developers of the bitcoin protocol, is often touted as one of the creators of the technology due to the optimizations to elliptic curve cryptography he made alongside Satoshi Nakamoto in the earliest days of its existence. As the first transaction recipient of bitcoin, Finney was integral to bitcoin’s operational takeoff, and can justly be described as one of its most crucial creators. In much the same way that Hal Finney is credited with being a core contributor to the implementation of bitcoin, could John Nash, someone who had been at the forefront of mathematical and economic thought into the prospect of ‘ideal money‘, be justly attributed credit for the formation of the electronic cash system of cryptocurrency?

The special commodity or medium that we call money has a long and interesting history. And since we are so dependent on our use of it and so much controlled and motivated by the wish to have more of it or not to lose what we have we may become irrational in thinking about it and fail to be able to reason about it like a bout of technology, such as a radio, to be used more or less efficiently.

– John Nash

Ideal Money

Nash described the concept of ideal money as having the function of a standard of measurement and, thus, it should become comparable to the watt, the hour or a degree of temperature.

He asserted an ideal form of money should provide a viable solution to the Triffin Dilemma – it should serve both short-term domestic and international long-term objectives where central banking money has utterly failed (the average lifespan of a fiat currency is 27 years).

Bitcoin Money Supply
The inflation rate of bitcoin asymptotically approaches zero as we inch closer to the currency limit of 21 million units.

Disinflationary Money Supply

Asymptotically ideal money focuses on the fluctuations and long-term perceived value of money, where the ideal inflation rate is as close to zero without being negative (deflation). Currently this accurately describes the economic nature of bitcoin, as it is a disinflationary money supply by design – that is, it is decreasing in its inflationary nature by halving the block reward at predetermined intervals. The inflation rate of bitcoin asymptotically approaches zero as we inch closer to the currency limit of 21 million units.

Nash described this ideal of money as something which could solve the Triffin Dilemma and provide a global savings outlet for people who would otherwise be subject to ‘bad money’, or money expected to lose value over time under conditions of inflation.

Nash described a nonpolitical value standard for comparisons of value, asserting that an industrial consumption price index could be “appropriately readjusted depending on how patterns of international trade would actually evolve”. Moreover, Nash described how actors that were in control of this standard could corrupt this continuity, yet the probability of damages through corruption would be as small as politicians who alter the measurements of meters and kilometers.

Bitcoin Consumption Index

Within the bitcoin network, the mining difficulty index, which can be viewed as a type of consumption index, is intelligently adjusted based on a regulatory algorithm which assigns the difficulty at a rate where new blocks are mined every 10 minutes, on average. Further, authorities of the bitcoin network (51% mining pools) could corrupt the standard of non-double spending, yet doing so would be an attempt to alter the calculation of transactions while not honoring their own incentive to remain an honest mining participant. The bitcoin whitepaper itself describes how such an authority would choose to ensure the integrity of this transaction standard as doing otherwise would devalue their own authority position in the mining network.

The nonpolitical industrial consumption price index Nash described in his 2002 paper is represented by the bitcoin network’s intelligent design towards regulating mining consumption power and readjusting the difficulty and block rewards accordingly.

Given that the bitcoin network is inherently regulated by an algorithm which adjusts the consumption index to an average of 10 minutes, could it be argued that the standard of measurement is time itself?

Is Bitcoin Nash’s Ideal Money?

Nash’s work on ideal money is represented in the most fundamental aspects of bitcoin’s economic nature. His insights into a form of money which can be used as a true measuring tool and one which solves the Triffin Dilemma by serving as a viable domestic and international money supply, have made bitcoin into what it is today – a practical opportunity to achieve an international standard of ideal money.

Is bitcoin the closest thing we have thus far seen to the concept of ideal money? John Nash’s work into the field did indeed make its way into the invention of bitcoin. Although he was very likely never behind the guise of Satoshi Nakamoto, his work lives on in the monetary policies built into the bitcoin protocol.

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Bitcoin Cybereconomy

Bitcoin Is Backed by Time Itself

One of the most commonly heard criticisms of bitcoin is that it is not backed by anything. What investors and enthusiasts must understand, is that bitcoin is not only a financial asset with considerable valuable, but it is regulated by a universal constant unlike any man-made money system which has come before it: time itself.

Algorithmic Regulation

If the USD is backed by the authority of its government and the largest force of military might on the planet – then what is backing bitcoin? Even if programmable, digital money brings intrinsically valuable capabilities, how can we have faith in it if there is no core party which oversees its acceptance and adoption?

This regulatory construct of bitcoin allows us to plot the supply schedule in a manner which is highly predictable while being uncheatable through manipulation found in traditional monetary policies. At the very root of what makes the bitcoin network tick, is a regulatory algorithm which determines that new blocks of bitcoin will be mined on average every 10 minutes. These ‘uncheatable’ maths which are intelligently constructed by system design, ensure that nothing can alter the predetermined issuance rate, nor the block reward halving rate, of bitcoin.

Every 10 minutes, more bitcoin become available at a disinflationary rate. That mathematical guarantee formulated by a crude form of artificial intelligence is the backing of a system which boasts remarkable intrinsic value.

Friedman’s k-percent Rule

American economist, statistician and writer Milton Friedman once posed the idea of replacing central banking institutions with a computer capable of mechanically managing the supply of money. He proposed a fixed monetary rule, called Friedman’s k-percent rule, where the money supply would be calculated by known macroeconomic factors, targeting a specific level of inflation. Under this rule, there would be no leeway for the central reserve bank as money supply increases could be determined “by a computer” and the market could anticipate all monetary policy decisions.

Will we ever see Friedman’s computerized banking institution put into action?

Considering the mining network of cryptocurrencies are the closest thing to an authority, and mining will only get more specialized and thus centralized in the future, we may well already have arrived. Friedman predicted the rise of a computer capable of automatically adjusting the inflation rate of money, and this is precisely what we see in the case of bitcoin.

As a regulatory algorithm intelligently adjusts the mining difficulty to make the issuance of blocks more or less difficult, bitcoin well resembles a working prototype of Friedman’s k-percent rule.

Bitcoin boasts the economic backing of a force magnitudes more intelligent and pervasive than the promise of men & military might: an uncheatable, highly predictable, chronologically enforced supply schedule.

The computerized function of the bitcoin system boasts remarkable intrinsic value. The cumulative value of this network will continue to grow as more users join the fold and payment in bitcoin becomes more accessible for every participant.

No money system we have seen to date can claim it is regulated chronologically. Bitcoin is backed by time itself.

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Cybereconomy

Mobile Payments Are Eating The World

“Will that be by cash, credit, check … phone or watch?”

Francisco Gonzalez, BBVA Bank chairman, predicts his bank’s chief competitors in the future will not be the likes of Chase Manhattan, Bank of America or J. P. Morgan, but software behemoths like Apple, Samsung, Google and Amazon. The new emphasis, he says, is in mobile payments. “Mobile has emerged as the driving force for disruptive innovation in banking,” he said at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona the first week of March 2015.

He should know. “The number of BBVA mobile customers has increased 14-fold in three years and totaled 4.3 million at the end of 2014,” he reported.

Not Your Grandpa’s World Anymore

“The days of carrying wads of cash and paper check books are quickly fading,” reports Nielsen Newswire in December 2014, in a post: Digital Money Management: Millennials and Boomers. “The world has gone digital, and payment methodologies are rapidly gaining prominence among savvy consumers.” The report goes on to say that these “savvy” consumers do “live with their smartphones, which means their high ownership rates could be a key to future use” in the mobile payments & banking industry.

Interesting enough, according to Nielsen, leading the pack in the digital, mobile payment revolution is the generation on whose watch the whole thing got started … the Boomers, who are now today’s senior citizens.

“The vast majority (92%) of mass affluent Boomers indicate online banking is their preferred channel for paying bills,” Nielsen reports. Comparatively, “about two-thirds (65%) of mass affluent Millennials pay bills online.”

Mobile Diginomics to Replace Physical Money?

In a Pew Research survey released on May 6, 2015, 64% of U.S. adults own a smartphone. 57% use their smartphones for online banking services. Fifteen percent claim to “have limited options for online access other than a cell phone.”

Even more succinct to the “Diginomic Age,” in 2014, according to Comscore.com, mobile app usage accounted for “half of all U.S. digital media consumption” and, in March of 2015, “the number of mobile-only adult Internet users exceeded the number of desktop-only Internet users.”

“Mobile transactions are estimated to reach $670 billion within about three years. Digital goods are expected to comprise about 40% of this digital market,” says AccessPaymentSystems.com. “In an ever-changing technological world, physical money and credit or debit cards may become obsolete. Easy to lose and easy to have stolen, these ‘old-fashioned’ ways of paying for goods and services may be going the way of the older trade systems.”