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Cybereconomy

Is Total Cashlessness Inevitable?

Debates abound as global trends move forward

“All that is necessary is to wait out a short term in the cycle of human history and a cashless society will inevitably befall us because this is a development that is automatic and inevitable.”

– Robert Hendrickson, (book) THE CASHLESS SOCIETY (1972)

The inevitability of a “world without money” has been an ongoing debate since the subject first entered the social scene in the early ‘70s. I know. I’ve been tracking the topic since that time. It’s been one of the most amazing journeys through the evolution of our times as one could imagine. Having spent my entire adult life in both retail and reporting, I have seen the retail industry go from old mechanical cash registers to card swiping to smart phone scanning … and, from there, we enter the full ubiquitous age of what I like to call The Diginomic Era! Everything goes fully digital … especially our money.

According to The Mobile Economy 2018 Report produced by GSMA Intelligence in Europe, “2017 was a milestone year for the mobile industry: the number of people connected to mobile services surpassed 5 billion globally, with 3.7 billion in developing markets. As such, two out of three people in the world had a mobile subscription at the end of 2017. Looking out to 2025, the mobile industry will reach new major milestones across key indicators – unique subscribers, internet users and 4G/5G connections.”

In the meantime, by 2025, the report also predicts “the more significant growth opportunity will lie in mobile internet … reaching a milestone of 5 billion mobile internet users.”

As the world goes increasingly and irreversibly mobile, the obvious white elephant in the room is the fate of fiat currency. Will the world see the eventual (if not inevitable) demise and disappearance of hard, tangible currency? Will the “money” in your pocket finally go away and be replaced with computer digits that will be called “legal tender”?

Katina Stefanova, writing for FORBES in its April 9, 2018 edition, noted: “Today, an innovative generation that cares very little about what the established titans of our industry think constitutes ‘currency’ have completely redefined how currency is created, exchanged and stored.”

In her article, “Digital Currency Economy: What is the Future of Your Bitcoins?” she goes further to say, “It seems as though the only thing one needs for a currency to exist is buyers and sellers who want to transfer value between each other. The subculture gains momentum taking the establishment by surprise; who thought that Bitcoin would be worth over $10,000?”

As you read across the Internet on the subject The Future of Money, you come across a plethora of philosophical discussions and theorems, but they all seem to have this common thread, as relayed in an article on Quora (Oct. 18, 2010): “Money is likely to become much more decentralized and even more ‘virtual’ … money is likely to become increasingly invisible. Rather than handing someone cash, you’ll give them your cell phone number and they’ll request payment by typing that number into an online form on their cell phone. You’ll get an SMS message from the payment processor and reply to confirm. Alternatively, you might give them your email address and respond via email. Another possibility is that you’ll ‘bump’ your phones together, and that will initiate the exchange in the cloud.”

Going cashless is inevitable if for no other reason than the fact that advancing technology will see to it. The new adult generations of the Millennials and beyond already have it in their cultural DNA.

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Cybereconomy

The Growing e-Dollar Culture

Any way you slice it, the world at-large is no longer analog, but increasingly digital. We are now at parity point between science fiction and evolving pervasive technology. Welcome to The Diginomic Era!

“Only one in ten US dollars in circulation today is a physical note — the kind you can hold in your hand or put in your wallet. The other nine are virtual.” – McKinsey & Co., “The Global Grid

Joel Kurtzman, former Harvard Business Review executive editor, calls it “megabyte money” in his 1993 book, The Death of Money. Don Tapscott referred to it as “The Digital Economy” in his 1996 book by the same name … and then, in 2006, he went further to call it Wikinomics. In 1997, professor and author T. G. Lewis called it “The Friction-Free Economy”.

In 1998, yours truly took it one step further in coining the word “Diginomics” to denote the trend in the future for digital economics. If left uninterrupted by unexpected, unforeseen or unplanned forces, the evolution toward cashlessness is inevitable. Robert Hendrickson, in his 1972 book entitled “The Cashless Society”, agreed with this assessment when he noted: “All that is necessary is to wait out a short term in the cycle of human history and a cashless society will inevitably befall us because this is a development that is automatic and inevitable.”

Technological progress advances with very few hindrances to block its destiny, whether it be for good or for evil. In this particular instance involving the end of tangible currency in exchange for its intangible counterpart, the die is cast and the ultimate future is now at-hand.

In a 171-page white paper report in 2002 entitled “The Future of Money”, the UN’s Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) made a bold statement on the future of money by saying: “To put it in succinct and current terms, money’s destiny is to become digital.”

“When looking to the future, the question (is on) the rate at which the last vestiges of physical money will disappear and, in the minds of some, if it is really destined to vanish.”

Visa’s Chief Executive Al Kelly, in speaking at his company’s Investor Day meeting in June 2017, was quoted in the July 7 edition of Marketwatch as saying: “We’re focused on putting cash out of business.”

“As money becomes completely digitized, infinitely transferable, and friction-free, it will again revolutionize how we think about our economy.” – Daniel Roth, WIRED, February 22, 2010, “The Future of Money: It’s Flexible, Frictionless and (Almost) Free

“Killing currency wouldn’t be a trauma; it’d be euthanasia. We have the technology to move to a more efficient, convenient, freely flowing medium of exchange. E-money is no longer just a matter of geeks playing games.” – David Wolman, contributing editor, WIRED,
May 22, 2009, “Time to Cash Out: Why Paper Money Hurts the Economy

Headlines appearing in 2016 give us a view as to what is coming, courtesy of The American Thinker, in an article entitled “Here Comes the ‘Cashless Society”:

  • Bring On the Cashless Future – Bloomberg
  • China buyers go virtually cashless  – The Star
  • Norway’s Biggest Bank Calls For Country To Stop Using Cash – Int’l Business Times
  • Cashless future underway as Canadian consumers have more credit, debit and app options than ever – CBC
  • In Sweden, a Cash-Free Future Nears – NY Times
  • Germany proposes new cash ban and capital controls as Europe rushes towards NIRP* – Examiner
Categories
Banking

e-Banking Squeezing Out Personal Banking

Elements of the “Diginomic Era” are ripping into the traditional world of banking, retail shopping, currency circulation and more. In 2018, there appears to be more street-level bank branches closing than opening due to the growth in mobile banking.

“Online banking has changed the face of transactional business and affects commerce across many trades and industries,” reports the Houston Chronicle.” Consumers now have the ability to perform transactions online that were traditionally reserved for tellers inside a bank branch. Teller transactions have declined because internet users have the convenience of transferring funds, making deposits and requesting withdrawals from their personal computers. According to Bank Systems and Technology, ‘Internet banking has been the most influential in displacing branch transactions.'”

According to The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 25, 2018), “Banks are closing branches at the fastest pace in decades, as they leave less profitable regions and fewer customers use tellers for routine transactions. The number of branches in the U.S. shrank by more than 1,700 in the 12 months ended in June 2017, the biggest decline on record, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal data.”

On June 15, the BBC reported that “about 60 bank branches are closing every month” in what is being called an “alarming” rate. It’s estimated that in England alone, nearly 3,000 bank branches will have closed between 2015 and the end of 2018. “Banks said their branches were losing customers as more people banked online.”

“These days, several banking apps exist that help users understand and analyze their spending habits on an annual, monthly and even daily basis,” reports Techopedia.com, “The IT Education Site” that covers technology trends, tech jargon and “anything else IT pros care about.”

“Each year, more and more banking consumers are turning to mobile banking applications to stay up to date with their banking needs. This trend has manifested itself in increased demand for mobile banking platforms and even in the loss of customers by banks that have yet to offer mobile banking services. Experts say that this is a trend that we should get used to. In fact, the growing popularity of mobile banking is expected to change the way banks service customers. It even has the potential to reshape the landscape of the personal banking industry.”

To further emphasize the point of how mobile banking has changed in recent years due to mobile technology, there are approximately 2 billion smartphone users in the world today. Over a third of the world’s population owns a smartphone. In fact, in many developing countries, the computing revolution bypassed PCs altogether, with people in rural communities connecting to the Internet for the first time through a smartphone.

According to FORBES, “the smartphone unique subscriber base will pass the three billion mark for the first time ever in 2018, representing 54% of the total population,” resulting in 52 percent of the banking public preferring the use of their smartphones to check their balances as versus 22 percent preferring their PCs.

“The future of the banking industry is growing increasingly digital,” notes Business Insider. “The explosion of smartphones in the last decade has truly caused mobile banking to go mainstream. Today, mobile banking apps are not an extra benefit in consumers’ minds. They are a necessary part of the bank-customer relationship, and their absence could convince customers to switch to another financial institution.”

T. Hall, a banking consultant in Alpharetta, GA, perhaps said it best. As he instructs today’s bankers to prepare for the new future in banking, when he was quoted in The Wall Street Journal’s November 30, 2011 issue as saying, “Many bankers don’t quite get the fact there is a new normal, a new world order that is coming to banking.”

So, as the world becomes more fluidly mobile, the banking industry is being forced to change the face of its services to meet the demands of this growing digital generation. 

Only those institutions and services that “awake” to the new era of diginomics will survive.

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Cybereconomy

Mobile Payments Are Eating The World

“Will that be by cash, credit, check … phone or watch?”

Francisco Gonzalez, BBVA Bank chairman, predicts his bank’s chief competitors in the future will not be the likes of Chase Manhattan, Bank of America or J. P. Morgan, but software behemoths like Apple, Samsung, Google and Amazon. The new emphasis, he says, is in mobile payments. “Mobile has emerged as the driving force for disruptive innovation in banking,” he said at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona the first week of March 2015.

He should know. “The number of BBVA mobile customers has increased 14-fold in three years and totaled 4.3 million at the end of 2014,” he reported.

Not Your Grandpa’s World Anymore

“The days of carrying wads of cash and paper check books are quickly fading,” reports Nielsen Newswire in December 2014, in a post: Digital Money Management: Millennials and Boomers. “The world has gone digital, and payment methodologies are rapidly gaining prominence among savvy consumers.” The report goes on to say that these “savvy” consumers do “live with their smartphones, which means their high ownership rates could be a key to future use” in the mobile payments & banking industry.

Interesting enough, according to Nielsen, leading the pack in the digital, mobile payment revolution is the generation on whose watch the whole thing got started … the Boomers, who are now today’s senior citizens.

“The vast majority (92%) of mass affluent Boomers indicate online banking is their preferred channel for paying bills,” Nielsen reports. Comparatively, “about two-thirds (65%) of mass affluent Millennials pay bills online.”

Mobile Diginomics to Replace Physical Money?

In a Pew Research survey released on May 6, 2015, 64% of U.S. adults own a smartphone. 57% use their smartphones for online banking services. Fifteen percent claim to “have limited options for online access other than a cell phone.”

Even more succinct to the “Diginomic Age,” in 2014, according to Comscore.com, mobile app usage accounted for “half of all U.S. digital media consumption” and, in March of 2015, “the number of mobile-only adult Internet users exceeded the number of desktop-only Internet users.”

“Mobile transactions are estimated to reach $670 billion within about three years. Digital goods are expected to comprise about 40% of this digital market,” says AccessPaymentSystems.com. “In an ever-changing technological world, physical money and credit or debit cards may become obsolete. Easy to lose and easy to have stolen, these ‘old-fashioned’ ways of paying for goods and services may be going the way of the older trade systems.”

Categories
Forecasting

Our Evolving Diginomic Lifestyle

“A new civilization is emerging in our lives. This new civilization brings with it new family styles, changed ways of working, loving and living; a new economy, new political conflicts, and beyond all this, an altered consciousness as well.”

– Alvin Toffler, “Creating a New Civilization” (1995)

In this transition of which Toffler speaks, cultures everywhere are being redesigned along digital guidelines, creating what we would call diginomic lifestyles. As the world reshapes and redesigns itself, it is rapidly and optimally adopting the technologies required to maximize convenience. Don’t sweat it! There’s no need. Just push that button.

Like the car commercial whose ubiquitous mantra is “Zoom! Zoom!” – the evolving Diginomic Lifestyle is one in which the speed of Life needs the speed of Light to thrive and prosper.

A World Market in Your Pocket

“There can no longer be any doubt that the future of business is inextricably bound up with the Internet,” says John Chambers, president/CEO of Cisco, as quoted in the book, Digital Transformation in 2000.

Michael Robert and Bernard Racine agree. From their 2001 work entitled, e-Strategy Pure & Simple, “e-commerce is changing the rules everyday – making it even tougher for brick-and-mortar companies to develop strategies for survival in the new economy.”

At this moment (January 2015), the total world population sits at 7.2 billion souls, 3.1 billion of whom have access to the Internet … fully 42 percent of the earth’s population. That’s a lot of people coming to visit!

internet-users-by-region
Internet Users by Region (Internet World Stats, 2014)

In the U. S., the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reports that ecommerce is growing at a faster pace than street sales in brick-and-mortar stores. Estimates of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2014, according to the DoC (adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes), was $78.1 billion, an increase of 4.0 percent (±0.7%) from the second quarter. The third quarter 2014 e-commerce estimate increased 16.2 percent (±3.2%) from the same period in 2013 while total retail sales increased only 4.2 percent (±0.5%). E-commerce sales in the third quarter of 2014 accounted for 6.6 percent of total sales.

Jonathan D. Freidan, E-Commerce Law: “Though online spending is still a fraction of total consumer spending, it is growing at a rate of more than 25 percent annually.”

According to one source (eMarketer), there are over 4 billion global subscribed users of cell phones today … over 67% of the world’s population. “By the end of the forecast period (of 2014), smartphone penetration among mobile phone users globally will near 50%.” According to a 2010 study by the U.N., “more people on earth have access to cell phones than toilets.”

Click and Buy

Aside from making phone calls or texting, new connection technologies in smartphones is on a fast track to being your electronic wallet whereby wireless purchases are made on the fly. It’s also being used as your personal scanning wand for food, clothing and department store purchases.

smartphone-users-worldwide
Smartphone Users Worldwide (eMarketer, 2014)

“We estimate that the total number of mobile phone Internet users will rise 16.5% in 2014 and maintain double-digit growth through 2016.”

eMarketer

“Today’s younger generation will trade in their cash, credit cards and checks for mobile digital wallets by 2016, new research claims,” the International Business Times reported on November 24, 2011. “Children born today will be [the] first ‘cashless generation’ and will frequently use their smartphones in exchange for goods and services, according to a report by the research company Forrester for the e-commerce site PayPal.”

International business consultant and author, Kenichi Ohmae, in his book, The Next Global Stage, writes: “The interconnected, interactive, global economy is a reality. It is often confusing and disorienting. It challenges both the way we see business and the way we do business.”

“The mobile Internet – mobile commerce – will dramatically change what has already dramatically changed the world,” says Richard Silber of Accenture. “The wireless world will be a truly global market … Get ready for the ride of your life!

Categories
Cybereconomy

The Transformation of Money

diginomics (noun) : (dij’i-nom’iks) [digital + economics] the technological and social development toward an all-digital economy conducted electronically in all financial dealings between buyer and seller; a cashless society where all financial transactions are conducted electronically.

Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

Joel Kurtzman, chairman of the Kurtzman Group, in his 1993 book, The Death of Money, called the new currency “megabyte money”, saying it was (and is) “an entirely new form of money based not on metal or paper, but on technology, mathematics, and science … This new megabyte money is creating a new and different world wherever it proceeds.” This former Executive Editor of Harvard Business Review and current business book reviewer for CNN, noted that “money now is different … It is no longer a thing … it is a system. Money is a network. Few people realize that money, in the traditional sense, has met its demise. Fewer still have paused to reflect on the implications of that fact.”

The “New Money Factor” of diginomics covers an extremely large spectrum to include not only the issue of currency being digitized, but every aspect of economic lifestyles today. It addresses both “how” we shop and “where” we shop. It’s how we spend our money and the electronic environments of that experience. Are we using cash, checks, and coins, or are we totally cashless? The popular yet controversial series of commercials by Visa in which the arterial flow of cashless shopping is stymied by the user of cash depicts both the reality of our times and a trend into the future.

The January 29, 2007 edition of Information Week notes that, “A generation is growing up hacking and slashing their way through virtual worlds, and they’re going to expect a 3-D, virtual interface for the rest of their online interaction.” Later, in the April issue, IW went further to say of this new generation of shoppers, “Now they want everything at Internet speed.”

The International Business Times of London headlined in its November 24, 2011 edition that the “Next Generation to be Born into ‘Cashless’ Society”, stating that “Today’s younger generation will trade in their cash, credit cards and cheques for mobile digital wallets by 2016. Children born today will be Britain’s first cashless generation and will frequently use their smartphones in exchange for goods and services.”

The Digital Economy continues to chase the heels of the Tangible Economy (where cash has long been king throughout history), getting ever closer to parity since its inception, ever reaching for predominance. Dr. Peter Bishop, the University of Houston’s “professional futurist” professor who oversees that school’s Studies of the Future program, calls this the era of “The Intangible Society”.

In a white paper entitled The Waves of Creative Destruction: Technology Past, Present & Future, Dr. Bishop declares, “We should not call it the information society because it is more than information. It’s also communication, finance, education, entertainment. I propose instead that we call it The Intangible Society—the first industrial society to offer breakthrough productivity on purely intangible products and services.”

Don Tapscott, in his classic book, The Digital Economy [© 1996, McGraw-Hill] has an equally interesting term for the new digital era: “the Age of Sand.”

“The new economy is a digital economy,” he writes. “The new age could be aptly dubbed the age of sand. The affairs of commerce, business transactions, human communications, and the insights of science are all reduced to charges on particles of silicon or racing through glass fibers, both derived from sand.”

In an era when books, movies, music, and newsprint are transmuting from atoms to bits, money remains irritatingly analog. Physical currency is a bulky, germ-smeared, carbon-intensive, expensive medium of exchange. Let’s dump it!

– David Wolman, WIRED, 17.06; “Time to Cash-Out: Why Paper Money Hurts the Economy

“Money is now an image,” writes Kurzman in The Death of Money. “Simultaneously, it can be displayed on millions of computer screens on millions of desks around the world. But, in reality, it is located nowhere and needs no vault for safekeeping. Yet, while money has no real location, it has created an environment that is paradoxically everywhere while taking up no physical space … A community where neighbors, colleagues, and competitors are accessible only through electronics.”